Tuesday, October 12, 2010

A turn up in INTC?

After earnings today, I mentioned on the feed that I thought Intels earnings were "suspect" because while they reported very sizable numbers year over year, they missed the guidence (originally that they lowered) back in August. Earnings are but one of the variables though - trends are the other and Intel actually looks interesting on the long side, at least according to my "trender" model.

First in looking at the price action, I put on the chart a trading range of the past 6 years where the stock has gyrated about. The stock took a dive in August following the guidance but inline with the market it has bounced higher as the value players jump in on the picture pushing the stock up. If you notice, the turn occurred right on the trendline, actually drawn from the 2004 lows. That period of time saw the stock move higher through 2004 peaking out at the top of the trading range near $26 - a period that has contained every rally since. So on balance, this argues that the stock has put in a turn higher which is bullish.

On the trender side of things, both elements of the model were ready to roll over following the dive in August only to be saved. The bounced in model A towards the 60% level argues that resistance is directly ahead. The model b level is right on the cusp of moving lower. In other words, for Intel to hit the top of the range, it must start moving higher at a quicker rate than the past. If not, model b is going to roll over and this very well could lead to a turn in the stock through the supports of August.

Going back to valuation, it is trading at 10.5x earnings....not really that expensive. But that does not always figure into the trading.



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