In terms of the components of the model, lets review. First, if you look at the candle chart, when a given security is overbought via the oscillator on the bottom (currently turning lower from the 80 level as you can see), I look for other variables to confirm. First, if you look at the Pforce model, there has been an enormous volume spike over the past 2 months leading to an almost opposite move of the downward move in the summer. The major assertion to take from this is simple - The Euro has climbed hard to the upside but it took 6mm shares to get it to 1.40 but took 7.5mm shares to fall from the highs in the 1.50s to the lows in 1.20s. In other words, relatively speaking the volume is telling us that there is a majority that are willing to drop this bullish viewpoint and go back to the short side given the amount of volume just to get back to these current levels. Thus volume is telling us that the market is susceptible.
In addition to this, if you look at the momentum models, they are both residing at resistance. Momentum A is important because as part of the "trender model" that I showed earlier with the S&P 500 because it argues if a market is nearing resistance from a trend perspective or has more room to run. Based on the current view above, the Euro is right at resistance and a failure here argues that it moves to the bottom of the range of this trender model. Momentum B as you can see also supports the resistance story and a failure here would support heavy selling in the Euro. So on balance, momentum while rising on the A side is at resistance and B is stalled as well at resistance.
Taking the momentum, volume and oscillators together, I would argue that the Euro is stuck at major resitance and due for at least a correction to lower levels. I think dollar bearishness is way too high anyhow and a bounce back by the greendback is looking more likely to this writer than a breakout to the upside in the Euro. Thus I am bearish on the Euro in the short term.
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