One of the variables of my "market view" includes the
VIX. In April, as the markets were on the mvoe higher, the VIX actually started to wake up and break to the upside. The 3 month trend has seen teh index hold in the 30s while the S&P has collapsed from the 1200 level 20% level down towards the 1000 level finishing around 1100 yesterday. as the markets have stabilzed off the lows adn teh bulls have tentatively stepped back in to buy, the VIX has had a straight move lower through the earlier part of July but has since essentially settled down around teh $24 area and been in a range ever since. Meanwhile stocks moved up but have since been saddled with sideways movement as we conclude July. Continued movemenet lower in the VIX, which means a break of the lows, will move my market view to fully bullish looking for a major fall rally. A failure though of the VIX to make new lows argues that the market may have seen its last gasp to the upside and selling will resume as we head into the fall.
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