I read a note over at RealMoney.com tonight that basically said the party was over for Apple. It was a "technical analyst" who basically has made marginally better calls this past year. In fact, I think his calls were much inline with a flip of the coin but that is neither here nor there. Anyhow, he said the party was almost over for Apple. this is an argument that I have been pondering as I try to discover the marginal buyer will be for this stock. Everyone is long this stock; the top 10 hedge funds, every growth mutual fund in America and just about every retail investor as well. There is very little in terms of sellers though one could make a case that lately profit taking has been the soup de jour. However, from a simple supply and demand standpoint, for the stock to move higher, it needs excess demand. I am unsure where it comes from.
That does not mean the stock cannot move higher though! All the technicals I use to measure the movement of the stock argue that the action is still moving upward. The two measures I use for trend (shown on the box at the bottom of the chart) point to a higher stock price. The one fly in the ointment though is the loss in momentum of the stop trend model which if it break down through the 1.00 level, we could start to see a long consolidation for the stock - this does not mean a breakdown though! I do know that many traders are just waiting for the glow to fall off this stock and most defenders of this company continue to do so even as the stock underperformed the markets in the spring. I myself remain skeptical but one has to agree with one's methods and those methods argue the stock is moving higher.
Interestingly if you treat Apple like I treat the S&P (including cash), the stock is probably worth around $330. Now on the chart, if you extrapolate the range from the circle (looks like a triangle overall), you get an approximate target of $320 or roughly another 20% from current levels. Color me bullish on Apple and its products. This stock probably has more upside but at $320, one should consider taking some profits.

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