Thursday, September 9, 2010

unbalanced

I learned a hard lesson over the past week that I have actually been taught before - if not fully focused on the market, do not jump with both feet into it! Yesterday, sitting on the porch of my friends island house and only a laptop in front of me (versus my setup in my home office) I decided to jump in front of the selling of the long bond following the reversal in stocks during the AM. If I had thought things through more clearly, I would have stayed away for several reasons.

First, I was not locked in and relying on one model (vs the normal 3). Second, I am of the belief that the rate markets are extended and reversing - as I posted YESTERDAY morning. Third, I had no idea of the context of the selling other than the fact that the S&P hit my overnight stop and then bounced following the market open (which is another error by the way). I did not see the Euro move upward or the Yen drop. And oh by the way, I was suppose to re-enter the SPUs order because the market opened above my stopout. So all told, by making the lousy trade in the bonds and missing the move in stocks, I cost myself a good amount of money yesterday.

So heading into the market open this morning, is my head screwed back on right? Yes because I am back in my home office to finish off the week correctly - then I head back to the island on friday to see the wife and kids. Bottomline, don't ever trade blind like I did yesterday and the day before. It will come back to haunt you if you are not prepared to trade. The markets feature tremendous volatility and one must be ready to react if conditions change to one's positions. Otherwise you end up like me, with losses in hand and an unbalanced trading process.

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