I would be lying to you if I said trading in 2010 has been easy. Yes, the last four months have conformed to a normal more predictable environment but from January through early April, the one sided momentum, in both directions, has made trading of the equity index futures frustrating to say the least. In normal markets, where the programmers and hedgies do not join forces and all do the same trade (the one sided momentum), I can forcast the next market move or at least get a signal to join the existing trend or go against it. With these teams of players together, the signals are getting distorted and error is high within the trading model.
Another major problem that I am having is these 1% moves overnight. I can see a market move coming (the rally on Monday at a buy signal from friday) but since I only focus on day session data - and have been doing such for 10yrs - I missed the move higher because the SPUs opened past my stop, did not retrace much and then accelerated higher on the back of the ISM. This has been a plague for me for the past year and notably in the very tough parts of the trading year. It is as if players are now treating the overnight session as a day session and holding those moves into the day session (in the past these moves would move back toward and past my stops towards unchanged).
As we approach the jobs report this morning, I think we'll have the same thing occur again and this will once again lead to some choppy trading. My bias is slated to the upside.
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